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Just eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. When the England international drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six games, are somehow just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have piled up.

Per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against United.

The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United had more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.

• The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
• The winger could transform into the player he was in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.

This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.