A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
